Biodiesel is unlikely to be a driver of crude palm oil prices

Issuing time:2017-12-28 11:34

In terms of demand, Paulus Tjakrawan, vice president of the Indonesian Biofuel Producers Association, pointed out that since 2014, the export demand for biodiesel has declined, especially in Europe, because the price of biofuel is much higher than the price of diesel, making domestic demand more important.

KPMG principal Chris de Lavigne pointed out that developing markets will be the main driver of biodiesel development in the coming years, mainly because of the implementation of biofuel blending policies by governments. For example, Sanin Triyanond, chairman of the Thai Biodiesel Producers Association, pointed out that Thailand's biodiesel production tends to decline because of the decline in domestic inventories, which indicates that Thailand's biodiesel blending policy is partly used as a tool to digest excess palm oil stocks. Without free demand, future demand will be driven by the demands of national governments, especially global emissions commitments and price support for agriculture and energy security.

Although the EU remains the world's largest importer of palm oil-biodiesel, the recent EU ban on palm methyl biodiesel may cause a decline in palm oil imports into the EU. But Julian McGill, regional director for Southeast Asia at LMC International, said an EU ban on palm oil biofuels was also unrealistic and change would not happen overnight, arguing that the voting process extended the discussion period, which could mitigate the impact of potential policy changes. Vasu R Vasuthewan, member of the International Sustainability and Carbon Certification Commission, agreed. He said an EU ban was highly unlikely, but noted that regulatory policy trends in Europe could lead to tariff increases or non-tariff barriers, the phasing out of grain-based biodiesel, and possibly mandatory certification of non-biofuel palm oil products.

Several speakers pointed to key factors that will affect the biofuel industry, such as the decline in diesel demand, the increasing popularity of electricity and the emergence of hybrids as potential competitors to fuel-based vehicles. In view of these trends, Harrison Lau, director General of the Malaysian Palm Oil Department, advised the biofuel industry to further develop biodiesel standards, taking into account downstream processing of biofuel products such as motor oils, solvents and other products. Tjakrawan noted that Aprobi is also pursuing new development opportunities for the Indonesian biofuel industry, such as aviation fuel, biobutanol and alternative feedstocks using algae and biomass energy feedstocks.

Kenanga Research maintains a neutral view on the plantation sector and has not revised its 2017 crude palm oil price forecast at RM2,550 per tonne. Unless there is a significant drop in crude palm oil prices or a rebound in crude oil prices, biodiesel is unlikely to become a driver of crude palm oil prices again in the near future. The current price difference between palm oil and diesel is about US $120 per tonne, or RM514.80, indicating that the bottom of the crude palm oil price is around RM2,000.

Share to:
The battery cycle life can reach 3000 times
Free of acids and heavy metals
Support all sectors of energy
Not explosive, not flammable
Chongqing Weihong Energy Technology Co., LTD
Address: 1-1, 1st Floor, Building 3, 100,000 square meters standard factory, Wuyang Street Industrial Park, Zhongxian County, Chongqing Contact: Shao Liyan Contact number: 13735464421